“To the Moon”: investing, r/WSB style
Rocket returns with WallStreetBets
Initial analysis and trading experience suggest that adopting a “wallstreetbets”- oriented investment strategy (in its own right, or as a component) may allow an investor (HNW or smaller Family Office) to realise above average returns. Risks of such a strategy are heightened, but the informed and disciplined investor may well be able to benefit from the associated parabola.
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“To the Moon”: investing, r/WSB style
“Boom” - investing remains a ‘zero sum’ game.
It appears that Reddit’s /r/wallstreetbets (r/WSB) is creating “value” for relevant investors; providing “alternative market intelligence” leading to above average returns, even considering the attendant “risks"
The US equities market has boomed over the last 24 months. Even discounting for the recovery from the Covid-19 March correction, there has been a recent acceleration in stock prices and market capitalisations (Figure 1: Market Capitalization for selected r/WSB “rockets”).
The evidence to date, as well as ongoing analysis (while far from complete), suggests that these above average investment returns can be derived from the activities of the r/WSB forum’s subscribers: with their irreverent posts; herd-like targeting of/investing in US-listed equites and use of Options, short-term. (Figure 2: Example r/WSB portfolio post GME January 2021).
It remains unclear whether such a r/WSB approach is a “killer-strategy”. Also, its applicability is unlikely to extend beyond the medium term. The antics of r/WSB may push bounds but does not seem to cross lines. The influence and results of r/WSB has attracted the attention of hedge funds, investment professionals and industry observers.
Such a r/WSB-oriented strategy (or elements of it) may well be worth considering as an approach (in full or part) for both individual as well as smaller institutional (such as a Family Office) investors to consider.
This ‘medium read’ may deter many: but it is valuable to the curious as well as those seeking clues to alternative investment strategies. This memo builds on the learnings from Gate’s investment activities (having deployed such a r/WSB-oriented strategy, at the request of some of its clients) as well as the research work of Raktas.
“Rockets”
The “Rocket” moniker encapsulates the stated objectives of many of the r/WSB investors.
The evidence suggests a positive correlation between r/WSB’s mentions (so-called “sentiments”) for particular listed US stocks (“rockets’) and their subsequent performance, absolute and relative (Figure 3: the dark line is the S&P index and the colours for Bull/Bear mentions, Source: Zain Khan).
The interplay between ‘cause & effect’ has yet to be confirmed. However, the rockets’ individual share prices performance is clear. These rockets include Tesla (TSLA), Palantir (PLTR) and BedBath&Beyond (BBBY) have seen their respective market capitalisations grow dramatically over the short term, by factors of between 2 and 8 times.
A number of innovative investor have developed and managed investment portfolios based on these r/WSB attributes. Some of these rocket portfolios have significantly outperformed the Market over a sustained period of months. For example: “Back test” is the r/WSB portfolio with a return of +61.5% vs the S&P at -0.8%, for the period April 2019-2020 (Figure 4: Example r/WSB portfolio performance, 2019-2020, Source: MjySong).
The activities of r/WSB are allowing individual investors to realise above average (high single, and even sometimes double-digit) returns on a daily and recurring basis as the self-proclaimed portfolio sheets on r/WSB show. Past performance is no guarantee for the future but there is a dynamic a with r/WSB that reflects and reinforces the currrent frothy Bull market.
The (final) frontier
At its core, the “success” of the r/WSB investors is their collective ability to invest as a block, making extensive use of derivative products, such as Options. The Herd’s efforts are most pronounced when they can “short squeeze” an institutional investor (eg Citron Research, Melvin Capital). Such an example would be GamestopCorp (GME), amongst others. Such activity is attracting the attention of the institutional investors.
4 horseman factors
This ability to act as an intelligent-herd has been facilitated by the combination and interplay of four horseman factors that are democratizing investing. These factors include:
Technology (allowing for zero cost, real-time investing for more digitally savvy Generations of -X, -Y, -Zs, and few Boomers).
Relaxing regulation (for investments and investors, as well as accounting standards, such as for SPAC listings, etc).
Macro-economic policies: providing cheap funds, negative real interest rates, as well as diluting the notion of a ‘risk-premium’, directing funds back into the equity markets, etc).
The effects of Covid-19 (encouraging on line activity in investing given the risks to salaries, enforced stays at home and the prospect of ‘get rich quick’, etc).
As investment industry observers cite: r/WSB is an investment cohort that must be considered. On any given day, and even in any single stock, the r/WSB Herd can represent 20% of equity trade, with over 40,000 subscriber-investors active. That makes this cohort the second-largest group of investors in the US equity markets, when engaged. Their surgical use of Options is apparent from the number of US investors using Options (by a factor of 3, to over 40%); and daily Options contracts volumes have increased by 80%.
Options go Main Street
Options trading (puts and calls) is a well-developed and established investment method in the US, much less so in Britain and Europe.
At its core, Options are used to manage entry/exit from an investment (a stock, commodity, asset, contract) as well as hedge risk. The use of Options allows an investor to invest in stocks, but at a fraction of the committed capital; offering a cheap way to bet on whether shares of a company will rise or fall without the necessity of buying the stock itself. The relative returns can be outsized: either just for the premium received and/or the leverage effect. For those investors not wanting to contract directly an options fund, such as TheWrittenFund, is an alternative, with its ‘covered call’ focus is particularly in a volatile/bearish market.
While Options can produce eye-popping gains, they frequently expire worthless. Options have been described by a famous investor as: “weapons of mass destruction” in the wrong hands.
To be clear, Options trading is not a magic money machine. Options brokers are not the only market participants buying and selling stocks. If the rest of the Market sees a reason to trade a stock, it does so; no matter that r/WSB is posting it or not. However, the presence of the r/WSB Herd as a unified and singular investor block, does have an influence: its use of Options facilitates that influence.
The Herd’s stampede – a short squeeze
The r/WSB forum subscribers (self-proclaimed “degenerates”) target selected companies (“rockets”) on the basis of: their shared perspectives and due diligence (“DD”) as well as assessment of institutional short positions. Then they invest individually, but acting as a collective force; mainly from their Robinhood.com accounts, using a mix of equity positions and options. Despite the frat-boy style chatter, the whiff of the seasoned professional investor pervades the many posts of mis-spelt, media-infused memes and emojis.
The targeting of a rocket, especially with short squeeze characteristics with the use of Options and cohort-investing has proven to be extremely powerful (Figure 5: Analysis of GME Short squeeze dynamic).
The gravity defying dynamics of such stocks, as an example GME as of late, attest to the power of this investor-force; providing possible market opportunities for all. Daunting in the case of GME (Figure 6: GME’s share price performance). GME’s stock has risen from $10/share in December to close at $62 on 23 January ( with a closing gain of +51% in one day) and trading at $151 to close at $76 on 25 January. Most of the 15-fold increase has occurred in the last 21 days (with daily stock price increasing by +20-100%; and a few decline-days of less than -7%). At its peak in value terms traded in a day, GME traded $18.7 billion compared to AAPL’s $22.8 billion; stampede!
Some of the recent January r/WSB forum chatter is now focusing on ongoing favourites BlackBerry (BB) as well as venerable stalwarts such as: General Motors (GM); Exxon-Mobile (XOM); Intel (INTL) and Taiwan Semiconductors (TSM). There are also the speculatives of Virgin Galatic (SPCE) and Nikola (NKLA) to name just two.
Bubbles – Revolution – Valuations - Infractions?
Such dynamics raise questions with regard to legality and sustainability.
There is no evidence of sharing inside information – the subscribers share sentiment. How does one draw a line between motivation and manipulation? There is no product nor service being sold; no promises made; nor inducements. Is the r/WSB dynamic a sophisticated virtual Ponzi-scheme?
There are traits that might suggest that within the Herd there is a small handful of professional traders, a cabal, who may be playing a very sophisticated game. They may be the ones identifying value pockets, corralling the Herd and exploiting these positions ruthlessly over a daily and short-term perspective. Interestingly, the Market circuit breakers are designed for ‘down-ticks’, not ‘up-ticks’. In the case of GME, a “infinite gamma” squeeze is a real possibility.
Is the Herd blowing bubbles or creating waves of change in the Equity pool? Regardless, with such extreme dynamics and price movements these will attract the attention of vested interests as well as the authorities.
Certainly, the ascribed valuation of GME (as of 22 January 2021) would seem inflated and defies sense if one uses more traditional metrics. Is there is a “sentiment formula” for valuation? Maybe. With regard to “valuation” the forum’s shared methods are no better, nor worse than many other. Is PLTR worth $57 billion, from its SPAC-IPO? Or TSLA worth $808 billion? Yet it was selected to join the S&P index! TSLA is, at present, virtually the S&P. Someone must believe the basis of its (dimension-related-adjective to be inserted by the reader) valuation.
The seeming successes of the Herd is much more a matter of exploiting shorter term arbitrages. Its attributes are: free choice; with clever targeting and timing of “rocket” investment (often to squeeze a short); facilitated by zero cost; easy market access; near instant and transparent market data and productive trading of equity and option positions with their inherent leverage.
Risk
The evidence shows that the r/WSB forum is creating “value” for relevant investors; providing an information platform to help produce above average returns, even considering the attendant “risks”.
Yet there have been some infamous failures; such as one forum subscriber losing $45,000 in on day through an AAPL call! In GME’s case there will be points of inflection and some investors will suffer losses – on paper and in reality
The investor’s mantras apply: Past success is no guarantee for the future; One should not invest what one cannot afford to lose; Caveat emptor!
With those warnings and experiences front of mind: should the investor play, and if so, how?
“YOLO”: basis of a r/WSB investment strategy
“YOLO” (You Only Live Once) is the banner cry of success in the r/WSB forum, along with posting individual investment position, portfolio performance tables as well as icons for rockets, paper bags and diamond hands as well as video memes.
The development and sustained successes of r/WSB has attracted the attention of institutional and professional investors. Some of which have tried to build mimicking algorithms of their own. Data is freely available from several sources to construct such trading models. While perhaps not a sustainable ‘killer’ strategy in its own right; a WSB-oriented approach has allowed some investors to enjoy above average returns over a period of many months. With daily returns in high percentages, one does not need to play for long.
How does one play, and run with the Herd? Carefully.
The essence of such a strategy is not unique as any professional trader will attest. It can be described as: high volatility, omni-directional, investments in listed growth stocks in a bullish environment traded on a daily/shot term horizon, in a word “momentum”. That does not mean the r/WSB approach is not viable nor valuable: an add-on or calibration perhaps, rather than a brave new world paradigm of investing.
For the forum’s so-called “lurkers” (those who visit the site but are not directly sharing posts) such an investor armed with clear limits, strict discipline and a structured trading approach has the prospect of extracting robust daily returns. It is relatively easy to build a crude investment model based on r/WSB dynamics. Raktas as well as Gate has done so for some its clients. At the very least the targeting of companies has proven beneficial. The defining aspects of the r/WSB approach are clear (Figure 7: General attributes of a r/WSB investment strategy).
These aspects include: selection and timing of the Rocket stocks; structured use of equities and options; timing of investments (pre- actual, post- market) as well as productive day-trading. The success of trading remains critical and down to the capabilities of the investor: with price discovery; entry/exit parameters and principal at risk. Anecdotal evidence suggests that nearly all the potential of a daily share price move can be lost due to poor trading, especially from entry/exit pricing levels and timing. Prudence demands that an investor must be prepared to hold the underlying stock, and therefore be prepared to lose the invested capital or significant portions of it. As the song goes: “…know when to hold ‘em; know when to fold ‘em!”.
The long-term sustainability of any type of r/WSB strategy is questionable. Yet that does not preclude it being explored by the individual nor institutional investor. Mining the r/WSB forum may provide alternative intelligence as well as a selection of more volatile stocks for the more risk-reward seeking investor to explore.
Reservations?
We at Gate have our reservations and concerns. As mentioned previously, there is no Rocket-science nor Options-magic to the above structured, r/WSB approach. It cannot compensate, nor mask, bad investing techniques.
Elements of a ‘to the Moon-Rocket-YOLO’ strategy have their merits. There is no uniqueness in concept; rather it boils down to the unique skills and capabilities of the investor to choose and trade. Choices for the day, dynamics of the day and trading on the day all matter.
Summary from the Cape
The r/WSB forum (in all it direct and indirect forms) provides an alternative source of investment ideas. If the investor is well prepared and accepts the risks, it is a means to play, more to one’s favour, the US equity markets’ natural gyrations.
For those with an interest in behavioural economics, the nature of social media and investment trends do go explore the world of r/WSB. For the well-informed, thoughtful and structured investor, who chooses to play with the Boys and run with collective Herd; it is a matter of donning protective gear and fastening one’s harness: a rocky ride, but with a prospect of experiencing a Moon-shot.
For further information please feel to contact us at info@gatecapitalgroup.com.
RISK WARNING
The views expressed are those of the author alone – no advice nor recommendation is provided nor implied. Investing in any financial instrument carries risks. Your capital may be at risk. Certain investments maybe long term and may not be readily realisable. Please consider all risks before investing. Gate Capital Group Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA Number 189170).